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November 29, 2007

Unmerited Confidence

Confidence is a funny thing. Too little of it and you can't get anywhere in life. Too much of it and you become a prideful jerk with little basis for the confidence you have.

Unfortunately, the world responds to the overconfident man or woman. The world looks up to these paragons of pride as if they actually knew something.

William Bonner and Lila Rajiva say this in Mobs, Messiahs & Markets...

Studies show that people are more likely to accept the opinion of a confident con man than the cautious view of someone who actually knows what he is talking about. And professionals who form overconfident opinions on the basis of incorrect readings of the facts are more likely to succeed than their more competent peers who display greater doubt. (p. 45)

This is a shame, but it's true.

Just yesterday I was on the phone with a prospect. He wanted to know if I could help him. I told him I suspected I could, but I made no promises. His response: "Well, I want someone who's confident they can get better results."

I didn't address the statement directly. I've forgotten what I said. Regardless, I cannot promise any prospect I can get better results. There are too many variables in play to accurately predict the outcome. That's a fact, no matter what con men may tell you.

When I got started as a freelance copywriter, I had less experience, but was far more confident than I am today. Why? Because two years of writing sales letters and one year of conducting split-tests has taught me that I don't know everything.

After all, is not "beginner's luck" simply blind confidence? At first, you think you know what you are doing and experience some success. Then you discover your success had little bearing on what you did... and that your first efforts were based largely on false notions.

Aha! That is beginner's luck. Too bad it doesn't last.

Over this last year, I've done a lot of split-testing. The results from these split-tests have often been shocking; the winning copy was not always what I expected. So I no longer have as much confidence in my intuition as I used to, although the results of each new split-test informs future copy and tests.

Still, I can never return to that state of blind, unmerited confidence. As they say in the movies, I've "seen too much."

Does this mean I'll lose out on some clients? Probably. But it doesn't matter. They can have their pick of the overconfident fools. Personally, I'd rather be cautious with the expectations I set and be able to deliver the goods. If that means landing fewer clients, so be it.

How about you? What role do you think confidence plays in success? Can you have too much of it? Too little? Leave a comment with your thoughts.

November 19, 2007

A 26.7% Conversion Rate?

Terry Dean says he has just gotten a whopping 26.7% conversion rate. Is that even possible? Find out how he did it here.

November 16, 2007

Google Called Me

If you don't know about it yet, Google discovered a problem with their split-testing control scripts. The problem allows outsiders to "tamper" with your pages, whatever that means. The details Google has provided are vague.

A couple days ago, one of my clients called me in a panic. Her sales page had practically disappeared. Only the top few paragraphs were displaying. I don't know if it was caused by this particular problem or not. I went ahead and updated her control script. Everything worked fine after that.

Google is very concerned about the problem. So concerned that they just called me. They asked if I'd received the emails, notices, etc. and if I had any questions. I told them I was aware of the problem and had already updated some pages, but not all of them.

You see, this problem apparently affects all tests, no matter if they are currently running, paused, stopped, or completed. Every single control script on every split-test you've ever run has to be updated. Talk about a pain in the butt. I'm just glad I don't have that many tests to update. I suppose this is one more reason to use privately installed split-testing software like MuVar.

By the way, three of the Glyphius/MuVar packages I offered a week ago have been purchased. I have six of them left. If you're interested, you can read about the special half-price offer here.

October 26, 2007

WSO: What Does It Really Mean?

It depends on whether you're a fan of split-testing or Internet marketing forums.

If you're into split-testing, WSO stands for Website Optimizer, the one put out by Google.

If you're into Internet marketing forums, WSO stands for Warrior Special Offer.

When somebody says WSO (which happened to me yesterday), you must know from what background they're coming from. In this case, the guy I was talking to was into split-testing, so I knew what he was referring to.

Anyway, just a random piece of information that may come in handy when you're talking to prospects or other online marketers.

October 22, 2007

How I Achieved a 7.14% Conversion Rate

This year I made a commitment to myself that I would start split-testing my web sites as well as client web sites. So I did.

And that's how I've taken one of my sales pages to a 7.14% conversion rate.

Terry Dean actually inspired one of the tests I conducted. He wrote a blog post about a specific test and the results from that test. One particular paragraph in that post literally put money in my pocket. He writes...

What I found most interesting in my test was the biggest variation occurred with the picture I used. It produced the biggest improvement…even more than the headline or the page length. A key principle to the picture testing was the “caption” that runs under the photo (you should almost always have a caption on any photo you use on a sales page). The winning picture gives the feeling of “freedom” in my opinion, and this may be why it was the winner.

Instead of passing over this post, I flagged it in my mind and made sure I acted on it as soon as possible. So I immediately used every little secret buried in this paragraph to set up my own split-test.

The results? An increase in my conversion rate of 45.8%. (Click here to see the photo that boosted my conversion rate.)

The sales page I'm referring to is now on its fourth iteration. I'm back to a simple headline test again after discovering a few words I think will bump the conversion rate even higher. (I used Glyphius to create the new headline.)

Will I hit 8% conversion rate? I don't know. But I'm certainly going to try.

Challenge: When you read anything that contains actionable advice that pertains directly to your business, don't overlook it. Flag it for immediate follow-up. Then... act. After all, information without action is dead.

January 25, 2007

Michel Fortin on Split-Testing

Here's a tip.

If there's a blog you like to read, go read the archives. Or if there's a specific subject you'd like to read about, you can do a site-specific search on Google designed to get the results that you want. For instance, in the Google search field enter this:

site:michelfortin.com split test

This is what I just entered. I read a few of the articles and found exactly what I was looking for. I also found some good stuff I wasn't looking for... like this article on split-testing. If you have a moment, I highly suggest taking the time to read it.

The formula for site-specific searches on Google is this:

site:website.com keyword

For instance, if you wanted to search my blog for headlines, you would type this:

site:ryanhealy.typepad.com/copywriting headlines

Enjoy! And don't forget to read Michel's split-testing article. :-)

November 24, 2006

MuVar Split-Testing

On Wednesday, I discovered "MuVar."

It stands for "Mult-Variate"... as in Multi-Variate Split-Testing.

Even if you've been a copywriter for a short period of time, you know that split-testing is one of the most valuable "skills" on the Internet.

You also know that almost nobody does it. (That includes me... and probably you!)

Split-testing allows you to test different headlines, testimonials, prices, and more. It's done scientifically. You get to find out what works based on facts instead of opinions.

Let's face it. When I write a sales letter, I'm relying on my opinions on what I think will work. Most of the time, I'm correct.

But even if I hit a homerun, split-testing is bound to improve the pulling power of my copy. There's simply no way around it: split-testing works like crazy to improve your conversions.

Here's the deal: MuVar just became available this week. Like I said, I discovered it (and bought it) on Wednesday. Because of Thanksgiving, I've not had time to install it or test it out yet.

Yet I think you should seriously consider grabbing a copy right now. The price has already increased once; it may go up again.

(Heck, it's a bargain at 100 bucks. The only other software of this kind that I know of sells for 5x that amount.)

I encourage you to take a moment and get all the details here:

  ==> MuVar Split-Testing Software

P.S. Split-testing can quite literally take your copy to "the next level." You can double or triple response in days instead of weeks. This software deserves your consideration:

  ==> MuVar Split-Testing Software

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