Unmerited Confidence

Confidence is a funny thing. Too little of it and you can't get anywhere in life. Too much of it and you become a prideful jerk with little basis for the confidence you have.

Unfortunately, the world responds to the overconfident man or woman. The world looks up to these paragons of pride as if they actually knew something.

William Bonner and Lila Rajiva say this in Mobs, Messiahs & Markets...

Studies show that people are more likely to accept the opinion of a confident con man than the cautious view of someone who actually knows what he is talking about. And professionals who form overconfident opinions on the basis of incorrect readings of the facts are more likely to succeed than their more competent peers who display greater doubt. (p. 45)

This is a shame, but it's true.

Just yesterday I was on the phone with a prospect. He wanted to know if I could help him. I told him I suspected I could, but I made no promises. His response: "Well, I want someone who's confident they can get better results."

I didn't address the statement directly. I've forgotten what I said. Regardless, I cannot promise any prospect I can get better results. There are too many variables in play to accurately predict the outcome. That's a fact, no matter what con men may tell you.

When I got started as a freelance copywriter, I had less experience, but was far more confident than I am today. Why? Because two years of writing sales letters and one year of conducting split-tests has taught me that I don't know everything.

After all, is not "beginner's luck" simply blind confidence? At first, you think you know what you are doing and experience some success. Then you discover your success had little bearing on what you did... and that your first efforts were based largely on false notions.

Aha! That is beginner's luck. Too bad it doesn't last.

Over this last year, I've done a lot of split-testing. The results from these split-tests have often been shocking; the winning copy was not always what I expected. So I no longer have as much confidence in my intuition as I used to, although the results of each new split-test informs future copy and tests.

Still, I can never return to that state of blind, unmerited confidence. As they say in the movies, I've "seen too much."

Does this mean I'll lose out on some clients? Probably. But it doesn't matter. They can have their pick of the overconfident fools. Personally, I'd rather be cautious with the expectations I set and be able to deliver the goods. If that means landing fewer clients, so be it.

How about you? What role do you think confidence plays in success? Can you have too much of it? Too little? Leave a comment with your thoughts.

Comments

[Joseph Ratliff]

Ryan,

Confidence. You have to have it...but it's how you portray it that makes the difference.

I don't think you have lost any confidence personally Ryan, I think you have more of the "right kind" of confidence is all...the kind that is backed up by experience.

Joseph Ratliff
Author of The Profitable Business Edge 2

[Jay Simcic]

I think that you are showing confidence by admitting that you don't know everything but you're willing to find out and work to get it right.

No one knows everything. I believe overconfidence can kill you especially when you make that one big mistake that follows your for a very long time.

Just my .02

[George Sepich]

Ryan, you are just too smart for your own good. There are a lot of overconfident people that even though they discover that that might not know it all, there ego kicks em right between the legs, creates some immediate pain, and they quickly ignore the obvious and go right back to being their same ole confident self. You must have been wearing a cup. :)

George

[Rebecca Dean]

Reminds me of the old adage... goes something like, "People listen to 10% of what you say and 90% to HOW YOU SAY IT."

Hope you're doing well, Ryan.

BTW, how are you doing with the magical email address program?

Rebecca

[Mike Hooker]

Ryan,

You have no idea of who I am, but I've been on your list for some time now. I bought your special report on how to get clients in 14 days. Although I haven't landed my first client, I enjoyed reading it, nonetheless. You have a smooth, almost relaxing writing style.

I appreciate your view of making promises. I believe in underpromising and overdelivering, which causes me some anxiety while starting my own copywriting business.

In direct response copy for our own writing businesses, we are supposed to build ourselves up, showing that we are the professional, the go-to person, in whatever niche we choose.

It's difficult for me to write about myself like that. I know there's someone else out there who could do the job better than I say I can.

I'm afraid I'm going to build myself up too much and not be able to deliver of my promises, which would make me look like a bumbling fool, the Barney Fife of automotive copywriting.

I won't belabor the point any further. I enjoy reading your posts and keep up the good writing.

[Lisa]

Ryan,

This is very thoughtful and thought-provoking. I always thought of "over-confident" people as being insecure people who just ACT confident to hide their insecurity.

But now I see that there really IS such a thing as too much (real) confidence.

Lots of wisdom there. ;)

Lisa

[Ryan Healy]

Thank you all for your comments and compliments.

@Rebecca - Going well so far. Perhaps I'll write about it soon.

@Mike - There is always somebody who can do a better job than we can ourselves. The goal is not necessarily to be the best, but to be as good as we possibly can.

The automotive industry is kind of like the restaurant industry; it's more about making the right offers and getting people to form long-lasting habits than it is about the copy you write.

Of course, one of the biggest issues in automotive repair is TRUST. My father-in-law helped run an auto shop for a year and got to see how dishonest and shady it really is...

[tower defense]

I bought your special report on how to get clients in 14 days. Although I haven't landed my first client, I enjoyed reading it, nonetheless. You have a smooth, almost relaxing writing style.